洪涝灾害条件下疏散交通生成预测方法

为有助于有关部门更准确预测洪涝灾害受灾民众的疏散量,结合非集计数据和集计数据的优点,提出分区集计数据的概念,设计了受灾区域分区方法,并通过意向偏好(SP)调查法对我国居民在洪涝条件下疏散交通需求数据进行调查。在此基础上,引入BP神经网络建立基于分区集计数据的疏散交通生成预测模型。利用调查数据进行实证分析发现,所设计方法取得了较好的预测效果,鲁棒性较好,平均相对预测误差仅为1.8%,其预测效果明显优于现有的非集计和整集计模型。     

Understanding implications of consumer behavior for wildlife farming and sustainable wildlife trade

Unsustainable wildlife trade affects biodiversity and the livelihoods of communities dependent upon those resources. Wildlife farming has been proposed to promote sustainable trade, but characterizing markets and understanding consumer behavior remain neglected but essential steps in the design and evaluation of such operations. We used sea turtle trade in the Cayman Islands, where turtles have been farm raised for human consumption for almost 50 years, as a case study to explore consumer preferences toward wild‐sourced (illegal) and farmed (legal) products and potential conservation implications. Combining methods innovatively (including indirect questioning and choice experiments), we conducted a nationwide trade assessment through in‐person interviews from September to December 2014. Households were randomly selected using disproportionate stratified sampling, and responses were weighted based on district population size. We approached 597 individuals, of which 37 (6.2%) refused to participate. Although 30% of households had consumed turtle in the previous 12 months, the purchase and consumption of wild products was rare (e.g., 64–742 resident households consumed wild turtle meat [i.e., 0.3–3.5% of households] but represented a large threat to wild turtles in the area due to their reduced populations). Differences among groups of consumers were marked, as identified through choice experiments, and price and source of product played important roles in their decisions. Despite the long‐term practice of farming turtles, 13.5% of consumers showed a strong preference for wild products, which demonstrates the limitations of wildlife farming as a single tool for sustainable wildlife trade. By using a combination of indirect questioning, choice experiments, and sales data to investigate demand for wildlife products, we obtained insights about consumer behavior that can be used to develop conservation‐demand‐focused initiatives. Lack of data from long‐term social–ecological assessments hinders the evaluation of and learning from wildlife farming. This information is key to understanding under which conditions different interventions (e.g., bans, wildlife farming, social marketing) are likely to succeed.     

太原汾河景区跨桥断面水体污染的时空变化模式研究

选取太原汾河景区跨桥断面8个监测点,在2012年3月—2013年10月期间对河流8项水质参数进行监测,并结合派生的水体综合污染指数及主成分分析方法分析和评价景区水污染时空变化特征。结果表明,景区水质污染变化时空差异明显,上游污染相对较小,下游污染较重;春季溶解氧和p H值变化幅度最大,夏季除总氮和氨氮外,其他各污染物均有显著变化特征,秋季则以氨氮、总氮和总磷变化最为显著。主成分分析结果显示,虽然各监测点水体污染的关键影响因子不同,但总磷是太原市河流水体污染的共同解释因子。     

密相塔半干法烟气脱硫塔内加湿降温及其对脱硫效率的影响

为了实现密相塔半干法脱硫工艺的精确加湿进一步提高系统脱硫效率,利用推导出的传热传质计算方法,得到烟气温度降低和加水量的关系.结合3组密相塔半干法工程实际数据,发现理论计算值和实测值误差区间仅为2.9％ ～5.4％.通过选取河北某钢厂210 m2烧结烟气密相塔半干法脱硫项目实际在线检测数据,发现循环脱硫灰含湿量为3％的系统脱硫效率整体高于含湿量为5％和4％的样品,最大值达93.56％.通过粒度分析、扫描电镜、X射线衍射及差热-热重对2种不同含湿量的循环脱硫灰进行表征,结果表明,含湿量为3％的循环脱硫灰较含湿量为5％的样品粒径小、比表面积大,无团聚现象,物相分析还证实相对于含湿量为5％样品,其Ca(OH)2和结晶水含量少,几乎都是CaSO4和CaS03干态物质,因此脱硫反应进行彻底,脱硫效率较高.     

服务于城市旅游形象的景观规划——以南京市为例

分析了城市旅游形象与城市景观之间的关系，即城市旅游形象的塑造离不开城市景观的规划建设，城市景观的优化有助于提高城市旅游形象；提出服务于城市旅游形象的景观规划理念和原则。规划理念为体现城市旅游形象，显现城市三脉，提供城市旅游活动空间，创造城市旅游生态环境；规划原则以理念形象为核心，人地协调性、主题性与市场性相结合，特色性与风格统一性相结合。并对服务于城市旅游形象的景观规划结构要素和组成要素进行了研究，结构要素分为城市景观整体结构、特色城市景观带（区）和城市景观视觉识别系统；组成要素可分为硬质景观要素和软质景观要素。最后以南京市为例进行案例研究。     

基于复杂系统建模的水管理政策研究进展

基于Agent的建模方法（ABSS）通过自下而上的方式，考察系统中主体的不同状态和行为特征、主体与环境的作用、主体之间的作用，来表征系统的宏观特征，是进行复杂社会环境系统分析和政策研究的重要手段，在水资源、水环境管理系统中得到了有效的应用。本文在大量文献调研的基础上，讨论了ABSS建模方法的基本原理、主要特征、系统构成、分类方法和开发工具等特征，总结了其供水系统发展、水资源分配和流域水资源管理、农业土地和水资源利用、居民用水行为、农业污染控制及人类活动的水环境影响等方面的应用，分析了其在研究内容、研究方法、研究结果等方面的发展趋势，讨论了利用该方法研究我国水资源管理和水污染控制政策的必要性和重要性。     

利用3S技术动态监测天山草地农业产量及其成因分析

在新疆阜康县大量“天地”资料观测基础上，利用3S(RS、GIS和GPS)技术和生态系统分析方法，对新疆天山草地农业资源进行了系统的动态监测和大面积估产研究。结果表明，该县草地和森林面积1998年比1988年分别下降了17．5％和51．o％，而农业用地面积和沙漠危害面积却分别增加了57．8％和21．2％，实现了利用3s技术系统准确监测新疆阜康县草地农业资源动态变化，其大面积草地遥感估产精度达到75．8％以上。最后，建立了新型PPR估产模型，其估产精度达到81．76％以上，并给出了理论生态成因解释与定量分析结果等。     

渭河干流(宝鸡段)表层沉积物Cu、Zn、Pb污染特征与评价

对渭河干流（宝鸡段）表层沉积物中重金属Cu、Zn、Pb含量进行了调查，用潜在生态危害系数法对其污染水平进行了评价，并与松花江（吉林市段）、淮河（江苏段）、长江（下游）、苏州河、珠江（广州段）5条河流表层沉积物中Cu、Zn、Pb的含量做了对比研究。结果表明，3种重金属元素平均含量均超出相应的土壤背景值，出现了一定程度上的富集；生态危害系数均〈40，属轻微生态危害。重金属含量水平在国内诸河中处于中间位置。     

Relationships between anaerobic consortia and removal efficiencies in an UASB reactor degrading 2,4 dichlorophenol (DCP)

To gain more insight into the interactions between anaerobic bacteria and reactor performances (chemical oxygen demand-COD, 2,4 dichlorophenol-2,4 DCP removals, volatile fatty acid-VFA, and methane gas productions) and how they depended on operational conditions the microbial variations in the anaerobic granular sludge from an upflow anaerobic sludge blanket (UASB) reactor treating 2,4 DCP was studied. The study was composed of two parts. In the first part, the numbers of methanogens and acedogens in the anaerobic granular sludge were counted at different COD removal efficiencies. The relationships between the numbers of methanogens, the methane gas production and VFA production were investigated. The COD removal efficiencies increased to 74% from 30% while the number of total acedogens decreased to 10 from 30 cfu ml(-1). The number of total methanogens and acedogens varied between 11 x 10(3) and 10 x 10(9)MPN g(-1) and 10 and 30 cfu ml(-1) as the 2,4 DCP removal efficiencies were obtained between 60% and 99%, respectively. It was seen that, as the number of total acedogens decreased, the COD removal efficiencies increased. However, the number of total methanogens increased as the COD removal efficiencies increased. Correlations between the bacterial number and with the removal efficiencies obtained in different operational conditions were investigated. From the results presented in this paper a high correlation between the number of bacteria, COD removals, methane gas percentage, 2,4 DCP removals and VFA was observed. In the second part, methanogen bacteria in the anaerobic granular sludge were identified. Microbial observations and biochemical tests were applied to identify the anaerobic microorganisms from the anaerobic granular sludge. In the reactor treating 2,4 DCP, Methanobacterium bryantii, Methanobacterium formicicum, Methanobrevibacter smithii, Methanococcus voltae, Methanosarcina mazei, Methanosarcina acetivorans, Methanogenium bourgense and Methanospirillum hungatei were identified.